Today, Barclays Research published its 2018 Equity Gilt Study.
The study provides in-depth analysis of current macroeconomic issues, with a medium to long-term horizon. This year’s edition looks at the macroeconomic and financial implications of recent advances in technology.
The publication explores the following topics:
- Robots at the gate: Humans and technology at work
This chapter argues that technology is reshaping the global workforce, not eliminating it, despite fears of a jobless future caused by advances in machine learning and robotics. It concludes that technology has played a major role in the puzzling lack of wage growth across the global economy, even with rock-bottom jobless rates.
- Macroeconomics of the machines
This chapter examines how the micro effects of technological advances aggregate to meaningful and lasting macroeconomic consequences. This may require rethinking the manufacturing-based concept of GDP to capture the state of a digital economy, as well as adjusting the theories that guide economic analysis and advice on monetary policy, public finance and development strategies.
- Crypto technology: A solution still seeking a problem
This chapter takes a sceptical view of the hype over the potential for crypto technologies in money and finance. Crypto currencies may have a home in low-trust corners of the global economy, but broader adoption of crypto technologies faces critical challenges and strong incumbents.
- Seeking value in crypto currencies
This chapter suggests a ceiling for the potential long-term fundamental value of crypto currencies, a new form of ‘asset’ with no intrinsic value or promised stream of cash flows. In particular, the chapter generalises and forecasts the price behaviour of Bitcoin, using a combination of empirical and theoretical modelling. It concludes that speculative interest in digital currencies may have peaked.
- Artificial Intelligence: A primer
This chapter explains some of the terminology and technology behind Artificial Intelligence.