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Investment Bank

Investment Bank

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Today, Barclays Research published its 2018 Equity Gilt Study.

The study provides in-depth analysis of current macroeconomic issues, with a medium to long-term horizon. This year’s edition looks at the macroeconomic and financial implications of recent advances in technology.

The publication explores the following topics:

  • Robots at the gate: Humans and technology at work
    This chapter argues that technology is reshaping the global workforce, not eliminating it, despite fears of a jobless future caused by advances in machine learning and robotics. It concludes that technology has played a major role in the puzzling lack of wage growth across the global economy, even with rock-bottom jobless rates.

  • Macroeconomics of the machines
    This chapter examines how the micro effects of technological advances aggregate to meaningful and lasting macroeconomic consequences. This may require rethinking the manufacturing-based concept of GDP to capture the state of a digital economy, as well as adjusting the theories that guide economic analysis and advice on monetary policy, public finance and development strategies.

  • Crypto technology: A solution still seeking a problem
    This chapter takes a sceptical view of the hype over the potential for crypto technologies in money and finance. Crypto currencies may have a home in low-trust corners of the global economy, but broader adoption of crypto technologies faces critical challenges and strong incumbents.

  • Seeking value in crypto currencies
    This chapter suggests a ceiling for the potential long-term fundamental value of crypto currencies, a new form of ‘asset’ with no intrinsic value or promised stream of cash flows. In particular, the chapter generalises and forecasts the price behaviour of Bitcoin, using a combination of empirical and theoretical modelling. It concludes that speculative interest in digital currencies may have peaked.

  • Artificial Intelligence: A primer
    This chapter explains some of the terminology and technology behind Artificial Intelligence.
     

In publication since 1956, the Equity Gilt Study provides data, analysis and commentary on long-term asset returns in the UK and US. In addition to the macro discussions, this publication contains a uniquely long and consistent database: the UK data goes back to 1899 and the US data – provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago – dates to 1925.

The 2018 study is available to authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank. Clients can log in to Barclays Live to read the full report. For further information about Barclays Research offering, please contact researchservices@barclays.com.

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