Today, 91% of the world’s population inhabits places where air quality fails to meet World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines. The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened awareness surrounding the costs of air pollution, while global lockdowns have improved air quality temporarily.
With WHO air quality guidelines set to be updated this year, a new report by Barclays Research analysts explores the actions required to effect long-term change in the air we breathe and the associated investment opportunities.
Man-made air pollution is a global phenomenon – and a global killer. The WHO estimates poor air quality is responsible for 4.2 million premature deaths a year, as well as contributing to a wide range of health concerns. The World Bank ranked air pollution as the fourth-highest risk factor for attributable deaths – just below tobacco smoke.
Source: World Bank and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), 2013; Barclays Research
Air pollution also has far-reaching financial implications. Associated healthcare costs were estimated by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to be $21bn in 2015, projected to rise to $176bn by 2060. Economic impact includes increased ‘welfare losses’ e.g. the lifetime economic loss from premature deaths and lost working days through illness.
Conversely, the US Environmental Protection Agency found that for every dollar spent in the US on air pollution control, $30 of benefits can be realised. It is likely that the pay-off for developing nations is far higher.
Sources: World Bank, OECD, Data-Driven Yale, US Environmental Protection Agency
Source: Barclays Research.
By 2050, 68% of the world’s population – or a projected 6.6 billion people – will live in urban areas, including an estimated 50 ‘megacities’. Focusing efforts to reduce air pollution on cities will therefore have the greatest sustained impact on human and economic wellbeing. Our Research analysts see a number of trends emerging to create cleaner cities:
Highly polluting industries may not be welcome in the cities of the future. From low/zero emissions zones and cities such as London and Los Angeles targeting 100% electric vehicles by 2025 and 2050, to stringent pollution standards for new development, smart city design will put pressure on multiple sectors to reduce their contribution to air pollution.
Air pollution varies hour by hour and street by street. The development of continuous, hyper-local emissions data to monitor air pollution will facilitate the integration of clean air technology (see below) into smart cities and help policymakers implement highly focused measures to tackle air quality.
Although the main focus will be on minimising pollutants entering the air, a wave of clean air technology is being deployed in cities from Amsterdam and Berlin to Hong Kong to extract pollution from the environment through air-purifying construction materials, synthetic trees, anti-smog turbines and road-based air filters.
As e-commerce grows, ‘last mile’ parcel delivery has become a major contributor to traffic congestion. Legislation will be required to reduce the emissions impact of this rapidly growing logistics segment, possibly leading to solutions such as bundled delivery and micro-fulfilment centres to serve specific districts.
As countries emerge from the COVID-19 shutdown, the expected update to the WHO air quality guidelines this year should keep the spotlight on urban air quality and inspire policy action internationally.
At an industry level, our Research analysts see seven sectors as crucial to improving air quality and having significant opportunities to make cleaner air a point of commercial differentiation. From emergent clean air technology providers to incumbent industries such as autos, capital goods, energy and chemicals, those companies that actively contribute to clearer urban skies are most likely to secure a place in the cities of the future.
Authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank can log in to Barclays Live to read the full report.
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