Taking into account all of the factors above, our analysts summarise the economic impact of virus-related shutdowns on Asia Pacific’s megacities as follows:
• Shutdowns in Sydney, Kuala Lumpur and Manila are likely to lead to some of the largest regional economic losses in absolute dollar terms. Given the high economic reliance of Malaysia and the Philippines on their capital cities, shutdowns in Kuala Lumpur and Manila also present some of the biggest downside risks as a percentage of national GDP.
• Absolute losses are lower in Bangkok but could, likewise, account for close to half of weekly national GDP. Conversely, Mumbai and Delhi are likely to see large economic losses of $1.5bn or more a week – but these will each account for less than 10% of national GDP.
• In Gyeonggi, Pune and Luzon (ex-Manila), whose economies include a high level of tradable manufacturing, loss of output is likely to be at least partially recovered when economic activity levels normalise. Even so, the national GDP impact of shutdown in Gyeonggi and Luzon is still substantial.
• Having seen relatively limited activity disruption and loss of output previously, the more severe restrictions now being imposed in the single-city state of Singapore mean that proportional risks to its GDP are higher than its pre-restriction days.