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Richard W. Fisher, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, spoke recently at the Barclays Markets Forum 2017 in London.

In a series of videos, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays’ Head of Macro Research, asked Fisher about the outlook for the US economy at a time when quantitative easing is coming to an end.

Realistic growth path

Featured: Richard W. Fisher – Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Ajay Rajadhyaksha – MD, Head of Macro Research, Barclays

Will the US be able to achieve a 3% growth rate soon?

  • It is possible - the economy has grown by 2% without fiscal stimulus and with strict regulatory restrictions.
  • The business community hopes that regulatory and tax reforms will accelerate growth.
  • But faster growth will also require tighter monetary policy to counter inflation.
     

Bedding down the balance sheet

Featured: Richard W. Fisher – Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Ajay Rajadhyaksha – MD, Head of Macro Research, Barclays

How successful will the Fed be in winding down quantitative easing?

  • The Central Bank has to be cautious in the way it reduces the $4.5 trillion of assets it has accrued on its balance sheet over the past eight years.
  • But the Fed has been transparent about its plans to sell these securities, and the market seems to be ready for it.
  • As long as the process is controlled, there is nothing to fear.
     

Getting tax reform through the deep ‘swamp’

Featured: Richard W. Fisher – Former President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Ajay Rajadhyaksha – MD, Head of Macro Research, Barclays

How likely are tax reforms to pass the US legislative process in the months ahead?

  • It’s not going to be easy, and it is going to take a lot of negotiation in Congress.
  • The approval of the House of Representatives’ Committee on Ways and Means will be key before the reforms go to the Senate.
  • There will be political backlash if the Republicans fail to push through tax initiatives.

Follow #uspolicy

Authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank can log in to read Ajay Rajadhyaksha’s recent Global Outlook reports, or subscribe to #uspolicy for related research reports on Barclays Live.

For further information about our research offering, please contact barclayslive@barclays.com.

About the analyst

Ajay Rajadhyaksha is a Managing Director and Head of Macro Research at Barclays, based in New York. He assumed his current role in July 2015 and now oversees the global research and strategy efforts of the economics, rates, FX, commodities, emerging markets, and securitised teams. Previously, he was Co-Head of FICC Research and before that, Head of US Fixed Income Research and US and European Securitised Research. Mr. Rajadhyaksha joined Barclays in 2005 as a Senior Mortgage Strategist. Previously, he worked at Bear Stearns, where he started in mortgage strategy before moving to the interest rate derivatives strategy team.

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