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Investment Bank

Investment Bank

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Last week / the next three 

Aziz Sunderji, Zoso Davies, Juan Prada

  • Markets were mixed last week but the data told a clear story: growth remains strong and inflation is rising in most major economies. In particular, US retail sales for October were much higher than we had expected, the Fed revised up its projection for growth next year, European December “flash” PMIs surged to a multi-year high, and inflation readings were strong in the US, Japan, and the UK. As expected, the Fed hiked and the ECB and BoE held rates steady, but there were a few surprises from EM central banks.
  • There were also some positive political developments. Our inaugural Barclays Brexit investor survey showed that investors are more worried about Brexit negotiations than the economy. But European leaders at their summit approved moving to ‘phase 2’ of Brexit negotiations, and we think this helps reduce the risk of an early negotiation breakdown and increases the possibility of a prolonged transition period. In the US, Congress made rapid progress on reconciling the differences between the House and Senate tax bills, paving the way for a vote this week.
  • There are a handful of key events over the next few weeks. In the US, Congress will try to get a tax bill to President Trump’s desk before the end of the year, likely avoiding a government shutdown with another continuing resolution. PCE inflation and FOMC minutes will also be released. There are several central bank meetings this week – in Japan, Sweden, Hungary, Thailand, Taiwan. The one to watch is probably Sweden; expectations for an extension of the Riksbank’s QE program are finely balanced. In Japan, the BoJ Tankan corporate price outlook (Monday), the BoJ MPM (20-21 December), and its summary of opinion (28 December) will be important in assessing the BoJ policy for next year.
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Barclays Live app for iPad and Android tablets

The Barclays Live app for tablets helps institutional clients to cut through the information deluge. Interactive tiles allow clients to view the content they want, store it for offline use, annotate it on the go, and more. It's Barclays Live, now tailored for you on iPad and Android tablets.

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