Double click here to edit Header component

Investment Bank

Investment Bank

Parsys 1

Parsys 2
Parsys 3

Rainy days and Mondays

  • Risk assets are starting the week on the back-foot, after DBRS downgraded Italy last Friday and over the weekend British media reported that PM May is likely to take a “hard Brexit” stance. The risk of a downgrade to Italy was widely flagged and while the move will increase the haircut on BTPs at ECB operations, Italian banks have pre-positioned a large excess of collateral and the haircut on BTPs charged by LCH/CCG are not mechanically linked to the ECB’s schedule. In the UK, PM May will tomorrow flesh out her Brexit negotiation strategy.

  • The ECB’s policy meeting on Thursday and the Inauguration of President Trump are the key events this week. We expect no change in policy stance from the ECB, where Draghi will likely face further questions on December’s policy decision.

  • Last week saw a continuation of the current key themes: economic strength; and political uncertainty. Growth is most evident in the manufacturing sector; industrial production prints rose throughout the UK and the euro area, leading us to raise our Q4 GDP forecasts in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. Strong activity is combining with higher commodity prices to stoke higher inflation.

  • Politics is taking a prominent role in direction price action. That said, we think volatility markets overestimate the risks associated with the French election, but underprice the risks around the Dutch and German elections (a grand coalition and Merkel remaining in power is the scenario on which we base our forecasts but there are risks around this). ‘Border adjustment’ is gaining momentum in the US but, if enacted, could boost inflation and weigh heavily on growth
Parsys 4
Parsys 5
Parsys 6
Parsys 7
Parsys 8

Barclays Live app for iPad and Android tablets

The Barclays Live app for tablets helps institutional clients to cut through the information deluge. Interactive tiles allow clients to view the content they want, store it for offline use, annotate it on the go, and more. It's Barclays Live, now tailored for you on iPad and Android tablets.

More about Barclays Live app
Parsys 9
Parsys 10