Our latest flagship quarterly research publication Global Outlook: Curb your enthusiasm, published today, suggests 2016 returns will be mediocre and recommends investors stay neutral on risk assets.
The report sees elevated valuations as priced for a benign financial environment, which could turn more challenging as the year progresses. Watch the video to see Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research, discuss the key themes with Michael Pond, Head of Global Inflation-Linked Research.
Other recommendations in the Global Outlook include:
- The US dollar is likely to have another strong year, as policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks increases. The Euro and many Emerging Market currencies are likely to weaken against the US dollar, but not the Japanese yen.
- Despite fears expressed by some investors, a global recession remains unlikely, given the continued tailwinds behind the global consumer – low inflation, easy financial conditions and tighter labor markets.
The full Global Outlook report is available for Barclays’ institutional clients to download from Barclays Live.