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Investment Bank

Investment Bank

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In a conversation with David Fernandez, Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Research, Asia Pacific, Barclays, Dr. Keyu Jin, tenured Professor of Economics, London School of Economics shares her perspectives on the outlook for economic growth in China.

Is China’s 6.5% to 7% GDP growth target realistic?

“I think that the potential is there but we are probably going to see very anaemic growth simply because reforms are difficult to implement.”

China’s stability imperative

“In order to make progress in the reforms, there has to be a change in the decision making process, or more broadly, political reforms.”

China’s long queue of critical reforms

“Even though it’s of paramount importance that state-owned enterprises (SOE) reforms and financial market reforms move forward, there are other more urgent issues like addressing Chinese households’ healthcare system, the pension system which the people have waited for so long and have seen absolutely no progress.”
 

How China views global markets


"We will see more progress in the opening up process than domestic reforms because I believe the government views creating an international financial centre and financial globalisation as the next step for China…this is going to be top of the agenda."

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About the speakers

Read Barclays Research reports on China

Authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank can log in to read our Research team’s recent insights on China:

China Outlook: Looking into the bond market, 6 May 2016
China Outlook: Rising credit risks down the road, 22 Apr 2016
China NPC update: Demand management, supply-side reforms, and no big stimulus, 7 Mar 2016
China: 2016 National People's Congress: Stabilising growth, difficult reforms, 2 Mar 2016
Thinking Macro: China enters zugzwang, 22 Feb 2016

Clients can also subscribe to #chinacurrency and #chinaslowdown on Barclays Live. For further information about Barclays Research offering, please contact barclayslive@barclays.com.

Dr. Keyu Jin is a tenured professor of Economics at London School of economics. She is from Beijing, China, and holds a B.A., M.A., and PhD from Harvard University. Her field of expertise is international macroeconomics, international finance, and the Chinese economy. Her research has focused on global imbalances and global asset prices, demographics, as well as international trade and growth. Her research is tightly linked to examining the various economic issues in China, with a particular in interest in saving and government policies.

Academic publications include those in the American Economic Review, the Journal of International Economics, and the Encyclopaedia of Financial Globalization. Media publications appeared in the Financial Times, Project Syndicate, the Chicago Tribune, Les Echoes, and others. She has also worked/consulted for the World Bank, the IMF, the New York Fed, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan.

David Fernandez is a Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Research, Asia Pacific at Barclays, based in Singapore. Mr. Fernandez joined Barclays in 2013 from JP Morgan, where his last position was Chief Economist and Head of Market Strategy, Emerging Asia.

Prior to his 15 year career at JP Morgan, Mr. Fernandez enjoyed success in both academia and in the public sector; he spent five years as Assistant Professor in the economics department at Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC, and served as an economist in the administration of President George H.W. Bush and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Mr. Fernandez holds an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University, completing his dissertation under the guidance of Ben S. Bernanke.

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