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The most prominent downside global economic risks – a no-deal Brexit and a continued deterioration in US-China trade relations – have faded in recent months. The Q1 2020 Global Outlook from Barclays Research explains why our analysts have modestly adjusted growth forecasts in the US, euro area, UK and China upward heading into 2020.

Watch a four-minute video discussion of Global Outlook: A slow grind higher with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research.

We expect subdued earnings growth – 2% in the US and 5% in Europe – and returns will clearly disappoint relative to 2019 but even so, stocks should comfortably outperform core bond markets.
Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research

The latest Global Outlook highlights several macro themes, including:

  • The outlook for equities and core fixed income market performance.
  • The improvement in the overall global economic outlook.
  • The 2020 US election and the implications for risk assets.

The Global Outlook recommends being long global equities over core fixed income, with a small bias towards European equities, where there is more chance of re-rating. Our analysts are especially bullish on EM dollar fixed income and believe agency mortgage-backed securities now look attractive to investment grade.

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Related content 

Feature

The Flip Side podcast 

This podcast series features lively debates between Barclays’ Research analysts on important topics facing economies and businesses around the globe.

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About the analyst

Ajay Rajadhyaksha is Head of Macro Research at Barclays, based in New York. He oversees the global research and strategy efforts of the economics, rates, FX, commodities, emerging markets, securitised, and asset allocation teams. Since joining Barclays in 2005, Mr. Rajadhyaksha has held various positions, including Co-Head of FICC Research and before that, Head of US Fixed Income Research and US and European Securitised Research.

Read the full report

Barclays’ Global Outlook, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and markets and outlines recommendations for investors. A slow grind higher is now available to Investment Bank clients on Barclays Live or on the Barclays Live app.

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