In our latest Global Outlook: Playing defense, our Research team examines an economic and financial backdrop that has been materially altered by UK voters’ unexpected decision to leave the European Union.
The negative impact of ‘Brexit’ on the European economies is premised on the view that the UK vote is likely to cause prolonged uncertainty and financial stress, with a number of potential ‘flash points’ over the next 18 months.
An investor might wonder, to which asset class does one turn? Is it US high yield, which has already returned nearly 10% in the first half of the year? Or perhaps global equities, where corporate earnings have flat-lined since late 2014? Or should investors look to the euro or Japanese bond markets, where the majority of bonds now trade at negative yields?
Rob Martin, Senior US Economist, sat down with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Global Macro Research, to discuss the Global Outlook’s views on:
- What’s driving our global forecast downgrade
- The US economy and labor market
- How investors should position in Q3
About Global Outlook
Barclays’ Global Outlook, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and markets, and outlines recommendations for investors. Further views from the Q3 Global Outlook: Playing defense are available to Investment Bank clients on Barclays Live.