Episode 17: Are the stars aligning for the UK to thrive after Brexit?
20 Jan 2020
The UK is on schedule to leave the EU by the end of January 2020 and the next steps in the Brexit divorce will have wide-ranging effects on businesses and investors. While many factors since the 2016 referendum have precluded progress in negotiations to date, a recent confluence of coincidences may raise the odds of the UK ending up better off post-Brexit.
In episode 17 of The Flip Side podcast series, Marvin Barth, Head of FX & EM Macro Research, and Fabrice Montagné, Chief UK Economist, debate whether a weakened global economy, geopolitical shifts, and the UK’s technological prowess are combining to offer a more favorable backdrop for negotiations ahead.
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Brexit is the most advanced manifestation of populism and de-globalisation to date. But will it be positive or negative for the UK, and what can the world learn from it? Our analysts debate in episode 5 of The Flip Side.
When the UK leaves the European Union, it also leaves the world’s largest single market. We assess which alternative trade scenarios could be viable for the UK, post-Brexit.
About the analysts
Marvin Barth is a Managing Director and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy at Barclays, leading the firm’s global FX research product from London. Prior to joining Barclays in January 2014, Marvin spent five years as a strategist and as a portfolio manager in the US for Covariance Capital Management and Tennenbaum Capital Partners, spanning multiple liquid and illiquid assets.
Previously, he spent three years at Citigroup in London and was responsible for the firm’s fundamental economic views on the G10 FX markets. Marvin also has extensive policymaking experience as the former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the US Treasury Department, as well as an international economist at the Federal Reserve Board and at the Bank of International Settlements. Marvin holds a PhD and MA in Economics from the University of California, San Diego, and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Fabrice Montagné is Chief UK Economist at Barclays. Previously, he was a senior European economist responsible for French, Greek and euro area macroeconomics. Mr. Montagné joined Barclays in January 2012 from the Dutch Central Bank where he was responsible for balance sheet, asset/liability management and strategic asset allocation decisions in the Financial Market division.
Prior to that, he worked at the French Treasury and Fonds de Reserves pour les Retraites. Mr. Montagné graduated from Ecole Polytechnique, has an MSc in Economics and Statistics from ENSAE, and an MSc in Economic Analysis and Policy from the Paris School of Economics.