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Ten years after the financial crisis, unemployment has reached record lows in many global economies, which means we should have seen wage growth increase by now. But that hasn’t been the case. So, what’s the holdup? And what does this mean for the short- and long-term future of the economy?

In this episode of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Co-Head of Research, sits down with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research, to debate the reasons behind this wage stagnation anomaly. Their dialogue analyses cyclical and structural explanations, from labour market slack to advances in technology, and the implications each could have on future wage and economic growth.

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Ep 2. Goldilocks in developed economies: How long can it continue?
Jeff Meli Ajay Rajadhyaksha

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Authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank can log in to Barclays Live to access related reports entitled Robots at the gate: Humans and technology at work and Macroeconomics of the machines.

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Related content

Episode 1: Are U.S. trade policies good for America and the world? 

Jeff Meli, Co-Head of Barclays Research, sits down with Marvin Barth, Head of FX and Emerging Markets Macro Research, to debate some of the factors contributing to, and possibly resulting from, the state of global trade conflict.

Delayed expectations: Automation, productivity and wages 

Machine learning and AI are having puzzling effects on wages, productivity and unemployment.

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About the analysts

Jeff Meli is Co-Head of Research within the Investment Bank at Barclays. Jeff joined Barclays in 2005, as Head of US Credit Strategy Research. He later became Head of Credit Research, playing a key role in the expansion of the firm’s credit research franchise. He has taken on a number of other senior positions since then and was most recently Co-Head of FICC Research before being named Co-Head of Research globally.

Jeff spearheaded the firm’s response to regulatory changes in Macro and Credit Research, as well as under MIFID II, representing the firm in conversations with regulators and as part of industry working groups. Previously, he worked at Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan, with a focus on structured credit. Jeff has a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and an AB in Mathematics from Princeton.

Ajay Rajadhyaksha is a Managing Director and Head of Macro Research at Barclays, based in New York. He oversees the global research and strategy efforts of the economics, rates, FX, commodities, emerging markets, securitised, and asset allocation teams. Since joining Barclays in 2005, Mr. Rajadhyaksha has held various positions, including Co-Head of FICC Research and before that, Head of US Fixed Income Research and US and European Securitised Research.

Previously, he worked at Bear Stearns, where he started in Mortgage Strategy before moving to the Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy team. Mr. Rajadhyaksha received a bachelor’s degree in Electronics Engineering from the University of Mumbai, an MBA from the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta and a master’s degree in International Management from Thunderbird, the American Graduate School of International Management in Arizona.

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