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Jeff Meli Christian Keller

The Flip Side: Episode 3

Jeff Meli in conversation with Christian Keller

Emerging market volatility: Global crisis or series of one-offs?

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In 2018, some emerging market (EM) assets seem to have taken a turn for the worse. From Argentina to Turkey, currencies have depreciated as much as 40-50% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. If recent volatility continues, will it spread to developed markets? Should investors be concerned that this is the first step toward another recession?

In this episode of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Head of Research, sits down with Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, to debate what effects the emerging market turmoil will have – if any – on developed markets. Their dialogue analyses the case-by-case reasons for current EM volatility, how that compares to previous regional emerging market crises, what this could mean for developed markets, and the potential implications for global investors.

Authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank can log in to Barclays Live to access related reports entitled Global Outlook: The US, and then the rest and Emerging Markets Quarterly: No inflection point yet.

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The Flip Side podcast 

This podcast series features lively debates between Barclays’ Research analysts on important topics facing economies and businesses around the globe.

Three reasons US interest rates are unlikely to skyrocket 

Barclays Research analysts argue investors have several reasons not to worry about rising US Treasury bond yields in the quarters ahead.

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About the analysts

Jeff Meli is Head of Research within the Investment Bank at Barclays. Jeff joined Barclays in 2005, as Head of US Credit Strategy Research. He later became Head of Credit Research, playing a key role in the expansion of the firm’s credit research franchise. He has taken on a number of other senior positions since then and was most recently Co-Head of FICC Research and Co-Head of Research before being named Head of Research globally.

Jeff spearheaded the firm’s response to regulatory changes in Macro and Credit Research, as well as under MIFID II, representing the firm in conversations with regulators and as part of industry working groups. Previously, he worked at Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan, with a focus on structured credit. Jeff has a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and an AB in Mathematics from Princeton.

Christian Keller is a Managing Director and Head of Economics Research at Barclays, leading a global team covering both Developed and Emerging Markets. Mr. Keller is based in London and joined Barclays in 2007 from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) where he had worked since 1999. Based at the IMF headquarters in Washington D.C., Mr. Keller worked on IMF programs with Emerging Market economies in Europe, Latin America and Asia, and served as the IMF’s Resident Representative in Turkey from 2005-7.

Mr. Keller graduated with a PhD in Economics from University of Köln, Germany, and holds a joined-MA in Economics and Finance from University of Köln and HEC, Paris.

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