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Brad Rogoff Shobhit Gupta

The Flip Side: Episode 7

Brad Rogoff in conversation with Shobhit Gupta.

Rising US corporate debt: Real threat or overblown hype?

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For about a decade, several factors have driven a significant and sustained expansion in the US corporate credit market. Like many areas of the economy, corporates took advantage of low borrowing rates and issued new bonds at a record pace. All-time highs in investment grade credit and leveraged loan issuance came in 2017 as the economy continued to show solid growth and M&A picked up. But has a decade of growth in US corporate credit ballooned to the point of potentially bursting?

Within the global credit landscape, there are two areas that have gained attention as the potential harbingers of the next market downturn: triple BBB rated bonds and leveraged loans/collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs. Do these areas of credit pose bigger macro challenges that could send the economy into a tailspin, or will there be isolated consequences within credit that show up after another catalyst causes the market to sell off?

In episode seven of The Flip Side podcast series, Head of Credit Research Brad Rogoff and Head of US Credit Strategy Shobhit Gupta examine recent developments in these markets and debate whether investors should be concerned about US corporate credit.

Authorised clients of Barclays Investment Bank can log in to Barclays Live to access a related report entitled: 

And follow #BBBubble hashtag on Barclays Live.

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The Flip Side podcast 

This podcast series features lively debates between Barclays’ Research analysts on important topics facing economies and businesses around the globe.

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About the analysts

Brad Rogoff is Head of Credit Research, based in New York. Mr. Rogoff and his team cover corporate bonds in the US and Europe, emerging market credit, municipals and ABS, as well as publish credit market updates and thematic research globally. Mr. Rogoff largely focuses on the US high yield, leveraged loan and CLO markets. He and his team have consistently been ranked by Institutional Investor in the High Yield Credit Strategy category since 2009, and the US Credit Alpha has been voted one of the Best Weekly Credit Research Publications each year since.

Mr. Rogoff joined Barclays from Lehman Brothers in September 2008, where he was a member of the Credit Strategy team focusing on high yield bonds and derivatives. Mr. Rogoff graduated from Harvard University, cum laude, in 2002 with an AB in economics.

Shobhit Gupta is Head of US Credit Strategy at Barclays, with a focus on the investment grade market, financials and hybrids. Prior to his current role, he was a Director on the IG Strategy team. Mr. Gupta joined Barclays in September 2006 as a Structured Credit strategist before moving to IG flow strategy in 2008. Mr. Gupta holds a PhD in Operations Research from the Sloan School of Management (MIT).

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