Episode 10: Does the US-China trade war pose a material risk to the US economy?
11 Jun 2019
As the trade war between the US and China evolves and escalates, many are beginning to question the broader economic and geopolitical significance of the dispute in both the short and long term.
On one side of the debate, the risks of a trade war seem overstated and would have limited effects on the growth of the US economy. On the other side, the concerns are real and pose a significant long-term threat to the US and other economies around the world.
In episode 10, Jeff Meli, Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research, discuss the direct and indirect economic effects of US-China trade tensions, the subsequent stock market volatility – and most critically – the competitive tensions stemming from each country’s quest to lead innovation globally over the next 20 to 30 years as 5G technology goes mainstream. As Jeff and Ajay debate, what started as a trade war is possibly becoming a proxy war for securing long-term dominance in technology, with each side using its strategic leverage.
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With the recent economic soft patch forecast to fade, Barclays Research recommends higher risk allocation as investors stretch for yield.
About the analysts
Jeff Meli is Head of Research within the Investment Bank at Barclays. Jeff joined Barclays in 2005 as Head of US Credit Strategy Research. He later became Head of Credit Research. He was most recently Co-Head of FICC Research and Co-Head of Research before being named Head of Research globally. Previously, he worked at Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan, with a focus on structured credit. Jeff has a PhD in Finance from the University of Chicago and an AB in Mathematics from Princeton.
Ajay Rajadhyaksha is Head of Macro Research at Barclays, based in New York. He oversees the global research and strategy efforts of the economics, rates, FX, commodities, emerging markets, securitised, and asset allocation teams. Since joining Barclays in 2005, Mr. Rajadhyaksha has held various positions, including Co-Head of FICC Research and before that, Head of US Fixed Income Research and US and European Securitised Research.