Double click here to edit Header component

Investment Bank

Investment Bank

Parsys 1
Parsys 2

Severe recessions intertwined with financial crises have historically been associated with lost output and slower potential growth. More than five years after the end of the global recession, we feel enough time has passed to assess the extent of the destruction of output in developed economies.

In applying a uniform framework across seven developed economies that account for nearly half of world output, we estimate that potential growth in these economies has fallen by 1.5pp since 1999 and, in turn, has reduced global potential growth by 0.7pp.

Our finding that slower growth in developed economies could slow global growth by 0.7pp is of similar magnitude to the effect of a slowing China on global growth. Slower potential growth in developed economies and a decelerating Chinese economy have reduced global potential growth by 1.5pp – a significant deceleration.

We estimate that the effects of the recession accounted for about two-thirds of the 1.5pp decline in potential growth in developed economies, with the remaining one third pre-dating the global recession. Policymakers’ efforts to stem the tide have been effective, but we doubt policy can fully reverse the slowing in trend output growth before the end of the decade.

Parsys 3

Barclays Live app for iPad and Android tablets

The Barclays Live app for tablets helps institutional clients to cut through the information deluge. Interactive tiles allow clients to view the content they want, store it for offline use, annotate it on the go, and more. It's Barclays Live, now tailored for you on iPad and Android tablets.

More about Barclays Live app
Parsys 4
Parsys 6
Parsys 7
Parsys 8
Parsys 9
Parsys 10
Parsys 11
Parsys 12
Parsys 13
Parsys 14
Parsys 15
Parsys 16
Parsys 17
Parsys 18
Parsys 19
Parsys 20