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Events don’t beat the trend

  • The year began with event risk in escalating US-Iran tensions and a stark reminder of how unexpected events can impose themselves on the outlook.
  • The muted market reaction shows investors' unwillingness to abandon risk assets, given a narrative of stabile growth and policy accommodation.
  • For now, growth is holding up, even if recent data have been mixed. In the US, the halting of 737 Max production could weigh heavily on Q1 US GDP.



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