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Elections have consequences

Christian Keller, Michael Gapen

  • The split Congress likely reduces the probability of further fiscal stimulus, but trade policy, which is in the president’s hands, likely will remain on course.
  • The Fed kept rates on hold this week and continued to describe economic developments as strong, supporting our forecast of a hike in December 2018.
  • Export order PMIs now show contraction outside the US. We expect Q3 German GDP to shrink in next week’s print, partially due to trade weakness.
  • After a volatile summer, EM central banks continue to be challenged by external conditions and are gradually turning hawkish, in both policy and communication.
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