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Boom and bottlenecks

  •  Data remains supportive for markets, signaling robust activity, while keeping inflation fears at bay for now. We made growth upgrades to our US and UK forecasts.

  • However, global supply bottlenecks could mean more sustained price pressures as economies normalise. Over time, this could creep into inflation expectations.

  • The ECB will likely keep policies unchanged next week, but its language will be scrutinized for signals, as the increase in PEPP purchases appears modest thus far.

  • (Geo)politics are coming back to the fore, as the US intensifies its Russia sanctions amid tense China relations. Germany’s September election outcome is very open.

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