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Solid data versus virus and politics

  • Solid incoming data, including for the US labor market, show a continuing global recovery. More China data and US retail sales next week could solidify this.

  • Re-accelerating COVID-19 cases are fueling fears of ‘second waves’, but their economic consequences would likely remain more muted than in Q2, in our view.

  • However, a potential ‘no-deal’ on the US Phase 4 fiscal stimulus and the further intensification in US-China tensions have now grown as threats to the outlook.

  • Amid record-low real yields, advanced economies’ central banks remain in wait-and-see mode, while EM central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles.

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