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Investment Bank

Investment Bank

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The dovish pivot continues

  • Following a succession of votes, the UK seems poised to seek an extension on its withdrawal from the EU.
  • The dovish shift by major central banks is likely to continue, with the Fed announcing the end to balance sheet normalization in March.
  • Data in the euro area and China are consistent with a trough in activity in Q1, though more easing in China is likely needed to maintain momentum in H2.
  • We downgrade our forecast for Q1 GDP growth in Japan. Our outlook is heavily dependent on the evolution of China activity.
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