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Waves of votes and virus

  • The outcome of the US vote and the wave of COVID infections will determine much of the global outlook, after a robust Q3 recovery across regions.
  • We expect the renewed partial lockdowns in Europe to cause the euro area to contract in Q4, the ECB’s pre-commitment to more easing notwithstanding. 
  • Robust momentum in incoming data suggests a milder Q4 slowdown for the US economy. The election outcome could pave the way for more fiscal expansion. 
  • While a change in the US government could reset many international relations, China plans for more self-reliance as northeast Asia leads the global recovery.


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