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Forecasting the fallout

  • Our updated global growth scenario predicts a sharp contraction during H1, followed by a gradual recovery, but resulting in a 2020 recession similar to 2009.

  • With global growth at 0.4%, we forecast China growth at just 1.3% in 2020 and outright contractions in the euro area (-2.4%), Japan (-1.6%) and the US (-0.6%).

  • Our scenario assumes COVID-19 will be brought under control by summer and forceful fiscal and monetary responses will be implemented in a timely manner.

  • We believe both are realistic assumptions, but recognize the downside risks to our forecasts. The EU summit and the bills in US Congress are in focus next week.

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