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Adjusting to slower growth

 

  • Signals of slower global growth persist, as US data partly fall into line with weakness elsewhere, and China and Europe surprise further on the downside.
  • This could resemble the 2015-16 ‘industrial recession’, but GDP growth remains supported by consumption buoyed by healthy labour markets and low inflation.
  • US-China trade talks reduce concerns around trade, while China signals renewed growth stimulus and Europe’s fiscal stance is the most expansionary in years.
  • Combined with a ‘patient’ Fed, this should help contain the current downturn, but developments in China and Europe remain key risks to the global growth outlook.

 

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