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Don't count your chickens

  • Incoming data provide mixed signals about any bottoming in global manufacturing and a number of trade and geopolitical risks remain unaddressed.
  • Euro area flash PMIs point to a slower pace of deceleration in manufacturing, but services PMIs disappointed, raising concerns of spillover risks.
  • US-China trade talks remain optimistic overall, but passage of the HK pro-democracy bill in the US could complicate negotiations.
  • While our outlooks for Mexico and Brazil remain constructive, the winds of political change continue to create unrest across Latin America.
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