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Investment Bank

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Weaponizing all policies

  • China responded to additional US tariff threats by letting CNY depreciate beyond previous thresholds. In response, the US declared China a currency manipulator.
  • Incoming data provide more evidence of slowing global growth. The German industrial recession accelerated in June and the UK economy contracted in Q2.
  • Non-core central banks across regions are surprising on the dovish side. In our view, this may pressure major central banks to ease more aggressively.
  • Trade uncertainty is up, but US fiscal risk has diminished. The budget agreement provides a modest boost to activity while making a shutdown unlikely.
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