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Investment Bank

Investment Bank

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Rays of sunlight amid the clouds

  • Recent weeks have brought positive news on the risk front, including a possible breakthrough in Brexit and the potential for a US-China trade detente.
  • That said, economic fundamentals continue to deteriorate gradually. Growth in China slowed to 6.0% y/y in Q3 on weakness in trade and fixed asset investment.
  • Manufacturing data in the US and euro area have yet to find a bottom, and soft retail sales are likely to mean the US economy decelerates further in Q4.
  • An improved risk backdrop would be welcome, but monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for quite some time.
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