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Geopolitics return as the pandemic recedes

  • Improving data and the gradual reopening of economies seem to confirm April as the likely global activity trough, even if the outlook for recovery remains patchy.
  • Intensifying China-US tensions have increased geopolitical uncertainty just as concerns over the health pandemic have started to ebb.
  • The fiscal policy debate continues, with new hope about more European fiscal integration, and news of a less-aggressive-than-expected stimulus out of China.
  • On the monetary policy front, this week brought continued policy rate easing in EMs and a sudden shift towards considering negative rates by the BoE.

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