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Bending, not breaking

Christian Keller, Michael Gapen

  • This week’s market reactions seemed driven mainly by perceptions about a potentially more aggressive Fed, rather than a sudden deterioration in data.
  • Talks between the UK and EU are at a crucial stage, but news has turned largely positive in recent days, suggesting that lines on both sides are moving.
  • Market pressure, rating downgrades and the risk of losing ECB collateral eligibility might eventually emerge as the decisive drivers of Italy’s fiscal adjustment.
  • In Brazil, the next president will face a highly fragmented Congress, requiring deft political skills to deliver important structural reforms.
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