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Less pain and gradual (re)gain

  • Activity data in recent months provided good news. Q2 contractions were less severe than feared and the rebound has generally surprised on the upside.

  • Although the pandemic is not over, the global economy is generally in better shape than assumed a few months ago, even if the momentum is expected to slow.

  • Near-term risk to the outlook remain, including renewed infection waves, the US election, and geopolitical tensions like Brexit, among others.

  • Yet we find these near-term risks as generally outweighed by positive developments on the medical front, such as progress on vaccine development.

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