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Competing influences

  • Rising infection rates and containment measures to curb the spread of the virus are poised to supress economy activity in the coming months. 
  • However, news on vaccines remains positive, opening up the prospect of immunization for the at-risk population beginning as early as December.
  • In the US, the UK, and Japan, we now expect softer near-term growth, offset by faster growth across 2021. We also revise China higher on ongoing momentum.
  • The US Treasury said it would not extend many lending facilities put in place earlier this year, removing an important backstop should the outlook deteriorate.

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